Addressing Tejashwi Than Trump

 The Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms are being framed as a smart response to the impact of Trump tariffs or rather American sanctions against India. The new reduced rates aim to put more buck in the consumer’s hands, who is expected to buy more and create more demand in the economy. But is that all? Domestic economic decisions are mostly triggered by local political exigencies. There is one around corner –– Bihar elections.

The Bihar elections are expected to be held in November 2025. And it has already generated considerable heat. Giving the example of one assembly constituency of Mahadevapura in Bengaluru, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi accused the NDA government of having stolen all the elections to the state assemblies and Parliament.

The accusation defies logic at many levels starting from the Karnataka assembly polls of 2023: Congress won 135 seats, which were more than double that of the BJP’s seat count of 66. Later in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, Rahul won the Rae Bareli seat polling 6,87,649 votes with a margin of 3.9 lakh votes, which was better than his mother’s performance in the 2019 elections.

In fact, Rahul Gandhi’s victory margin was more than double that of the Prime Minister’s. While Rahul polled 6.8 lakh votes, Modi garnered only 6.12 lakh votes in Varanasi and won by a much lesser margin of 1.52 lakh votes. So, if a party is stealing all the elections, won’t it secure its leader’s seat with the best of margins? Conversely, won’t it steal Rahul’s Rae Bareli seat as well? After all, Rahul knew that he was losing his Amethi seat in the previous election and had hence travelled southwards to choose a safe seat with a majority of Muslim and Christian voters.

While these questions defy the logic of the “Vote Chori” campaign, it needs to be said that the campaign has indeed struck a note with at least those inimical to the BJP, if not the larger public. Rahul’s “Vote Chori” press conference was indeed convincing and compelling. Politis is not merely statistics. So, the accusation stuck, however absurd it might sound to extrapolate an assembly constituency to the entire country with thousands of such constituencies and many of those won by the Congress.

The “Vote Chori” accusations and the subsequent “Vote Adhikar Yatra” campaign were launched amidst the Special and Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar. The SIR and the Vote Chori accusations have got linked and mixed up to become a potent campaign in favour of the Opposition. And the elections are just two months away.

The GST reforms should be seen in this context.

The Indian middle class is an anomaly because those who earn Rs 6 lakh per annum and those who take home Rs 60 lakh a year would happily call themselves middle class. Having climbed the steep ladder of relative success and prosperity in one generation, this class is cost conscious. Price reduction is something that matters to them. But this class cannot offset the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. They will not buy the export-priced apparel or footwear or gem and jewellery. Why, they won’t even consider cooking the export-quality shrimp.

Their consumption pattern is not going to change, but they might consider voting for Modi and Nitish Kumar again for reducing the price of everything from toothpaste to motor bikes to mid-sized cars. This is more a winning political formula than a geoeconomic measure against a global bully. The middle classes are India’s whining multitude, they make opinion. Modi has offered them the ultimate sop –– telling them that more and more consumables are within their reach. This could change the topic of conversation in the run up to the polls.

But for brief interludes, the NDA has been continuously in power in Bihar since 2005. That is a long stint by any measure in an almost ungovernable state with the greatest levels of poverty. Thanks to the complete polarisation of the polity, caste and communal considerations often override biting anti-incumbency. Yet, the NDA fared badly in Bihar in 2024 Lok Sabha polls with just 30 out of 40 seats whereas it had won 39 in 2019, 31 in 2014 and 32 in 2009.

The Opposition to SIR was expected to exacerbate the communal divide as the attempt was to identify non-citizens, a euphemism for illegal Muslim migrants from Bangladesh. The more the Opposition from the Congress and the Lalu clan to SIR, the worse the Hindu-Muslim divide would get –– could have been the calculation. However, when the “Vote Chori” campaign gets mixed up with the SIR, the end result would be something else making even the fence-sitters wonder about the truth behind the allegations.

When a bonanza is announced at that very moment, the political climate gets altered, introducing a political or electoral equivalent of a feel-good factor. Bihar is the land of the desperately poor, the poor and the lower middle classes, where every paisa counts. If the Income Tax slab revision just four days before the polling could fetch bountiful votes for the BJP in the 2025 Delhi elections, the GST rejig offering massive price reduction to the working classes could be a welcome relief.

And it is important to look back at Modi’s Independence Day speech. There were two very important messages: lowering of GST rates and unqualified praise for the RSS. Many Sangh insiders believe that apart from price rise, the lack of enthusiasm of the RSS could have played a big role in the BJP losing the simple majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The I-Day speech addressed both these issues. Modi is going out of his way to accommodate the RSS, without which the BJP becomes a cadre-less party like the Congress; and also, to arrest price rise.

Here is a consummate politician recalibrating his policies to suit the demands of the electorate, which was getting increasingly apathetic towards the government. The Bihar results may prove him right.

Dhankar, RSS and Retirement

The resignation of Vice President Jagdeep Dhankar, the country’s second highest Constitutional functionary, hardly seemed to have created a crisis or even a political controversy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi set out on his foreign jaunts as if nothing significant had happened and the signing of the trade deal with the UK on Thursday soon pushed Dhankar out of the top news headlines.

There is doubt about Dhankar really suffering from a debilitating disease that deters him from chairing the Rajya Sabha or holding his office. Political pundits have latched on to the theory of Dhankar defying the BJP leadership in accepting a notice of impeachment of Justice Yashwant Varma by the Opposition as the reason for the government losing its faith in him. This, sure, is better than the official ill-health theory but still falls far short in the realm of possibilities.

A strong government that can without demur ease out a Constitutional functionary can also politely ask him or her to toe the line. There is no need for a person holding a high office to resign, that too during the Parliament session, if it were merely a case of difference of opinion about accepting a notice ahead of the Lok Sabha proceedings. Dhankar’s resignation smacks of a much bigger political plot. In fact, this is one of the bigger crises that Modi has tackled in his 11 years as Prime Minister.

Yet, the resignation has not rocked the boat as most resignations even from far more insignificant roles are wont to in this era of social media omnipresence. Four days have passed after Dhankar’s resignation; but he has not made a statement or anonymously leaked out a story in the press on what exactly transpired between him and the government.

Such unprecedent control over political messaging even during a high-profile political exit is rare and has been the hallmark of Modi’s tenure. But it has triggered an intense debate on a vital issue: the Modi-RSS relationship. Dhankar and Modi are 74 and the latter will be 75 --- the unofficial retirement age --- in a month and a half.

Dhankar’s resignation has made the Delhi commentariat wonder whether it has anything to do with RSS Sarsanghachalak Mohan Bhagwat earlier this month reminding the Sangh Parivar organisations, which include the BJP, that leaders ideally ought to retire at 75. Soon a former RSS spokesperson wrote an op-ed clarifying that it was not meant for the PM’s consumption and was a piece of general advice to the society at large.

However, Bhagwat has not made any such clarification yet. He may even shock the organisation and step down as he turns 75, six days before Modi does so. Sure, it is too close to the event and there are no signs yet of a successor getting groomed. So, all this could be mere pressure tactics as well. But Bhagwat’s recalling of Moropant Pingle’s advice on an age limit for public servants has suddenly opened up the fault lines that existed between the PM and the mother ship.

Unlike Vajpayee, who visited the RSS headquarters in 2000 within three years of becoming Prime Minister –– even while steering a tough coalition of constantly bickering allies –– Modi waited 11 years for this crucial visit. Modi was the first RSS Swayamsevak to lead the BJP to a simple majority in Parliament and head a government without the crutches of the alliance partners.

Yet, it was only after he fell short of simple majority in the 2024 polls and was forced to depend on the allies to form a government that he decided to visit the RSS headquarters in March 2025. Earlier during the inauguration of the Ram temple, Bhagwat was made a mere spectator while Modi presided over the priestly proceedings. The not-so-warm vibes between these two icons of the Sangh Parivar were on public display at Ayodhya in January 2024 and at Nagpur in March 2025.

Still, no Parivar insider envisages a change of guard at the Raisina Hill before 2029, if at all. The RSS appreciates all that the BJP has done for the organisation and understands the pitfalls of pushing its own government out of power as it happened in 2004. Dattopant Thengadi, the most credible RSS leader, probably more popular than the then RSS chief KS Sudarshan, had held a rally at Ram Lila Maidan and attacked the Vajpayee government viciously in 2001.

There will be no such public exhibition of sibling rivalry or maternal disappointment this time around. Yet, the fact that the BJP still has not chosen a new party president proves that there are points of friction between the two power centres in the Sangh Parivar that are not allowing a consensus candidate to emerge. Even Dhankar’s exit is being framed in an organisational paradigm –– an outsider who was showered with opportunities finally becoming a disappointment.

Like Dhankar, many of the new BJP’s top leaders have come from either Congress or other Opposition parties. This has irked the RSS to no end. And the loss of majority for the BJP in the 2024 elections has emboldened the RSS leadership to point out that the party is only a part of the Hindutva family. The results once again underscored the old organisational hierarchy and negated former party president JP Nadda’s claim that BJP is “capable” of running its affairs.

No wonder there was much speculation around Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s meeting with the Prime Minister last week. But all the talk about succession planning seems premature. Sure, there would be a shakeup with a new Vice President and party president offering signposts for the BJP’s future.

Till Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi keeps on pledging to purge the RSS, the PM has nothing to worry, because it becomes imperative for the RSS to support a strong leader who can keep its enemies at bay. But the moment the organisation finds a support base elsewhere the situation can get altered dramatically. Then, few contemporary Indian politicians are equipped to play such nuanced strokes of power politics like Modi.