Showing posts with label Tariff. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tariff. Show all posts

Monday, August 4, 2025

Trump's Tantrums Are A Sideshow

India’s entry into the World Trade Organisation ––– rather Indian politicians rushing into a global trade minefield where the Chinese were wary to tread ––– left the country’s manufacturing sector bankrupt. Now, Indians can’t hook up to a Wi-Fi connection without a Chinese dongle. It was impossible to replace a faulty telecom equipment during the Ladakh standoff, when restrictions were imposed on Chinese imports. India’s dependence on Chinese Active Pharma Ingredients to produce antibiotics is near total ––– 80 to 90 per cent.


While India joined WTO under Prime Minister Narasimha Rao the very first day itself on January 1, 1995, China took nearly seven years to study and prepare and only then did they step in on December 11, 2001. And now China rules the manufacturing world, while India is struggling to set up assembly lines for foreign industrialists.


India is where it is solely because of the Western assets in Indian politics, bureaucracy and media. Anyone who had then questioned India’s entry into the WTO used to get damned and named a dinosaur, who wanted to reinvent the wheel. The West wanted China to be the world’s factory and India a poor, underdeveloped market. But then, the assumption that the Chinese would be perpetually and mindlessly running factories for Western profiteers was proved wrong.


When China became a threat and a competitor, the West dumped the “rules-based international order” and “multilateralism” and has begun sealing bilateral trade agreements. Now, the West wants to reinvent the wheel, everywhere, particularly back home.


 

Trump’s insults, accusations and rants should only be seen in the light of a post-WTO continuum. His personal style and slights have little to do with all the bilateral treaties that are getting finalised all over the world. The UK, the UAE, Australia and European Free Trade Association have signed trade treaties with India. Trump’s tantrums are just a side show.

But what is at stake is India’s sovereignty, food security, rural employment, farming income and the steep climb from starvation-level poverty. Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput are three districts of Odisha known not-so-long ago for starvation deaths and sale of infants for a bowl of rice. Naveen Patnaik’s miracle in Odisha was to make people grow food grains that the state government would buy. This assured payment made these districts along with the rest of the state surplus in rice.


It is that surplus, which Trump has set his eyes on. India’s green and white revolutions that turned a post-colonial misery into a food-surplus, self-respecting nation are sought to be dismantled. India is being asked to turn the clock back and allow US imports in agricultural and dairy sectors. If while pushing the country into WTO, Indian policy and opinion-makers had brought in manufacturing servitude, the new Bilateral Trade Agreement seems to have all the ingredients to throw the nation into food-dependency.
Cheap electronic, telecom and digital device imports made India into a country that only produces cyber coolies and coding cooks without a single breakthrough innovation in hardware or software. Neither a Blackberry, nor a Nokia, nor a Harmony OS!


Worse than Trump’s cheap digs at India having to buy oil from Pakistan was the news of Microsoft switching off its services to Indian oil refiner Nayara Energy, which is partly owned (49.13 per cent) by Russian oil major Rosneft. The West is trying to deny India its sovereignty not just through coercive trade practices but by weaponising technology paid for by Indian entities.


If Big Tech companies are operating according to the military objectives and foreign policy dictates of the West, should not their sales and revenues in India be reported by Indian authorities as import expenses? If so, do not their Indian revenues contribute towards balancing the so-called trade surplus that India has with the US?


India has been so mindful of the US interests that it still has not publicised all the red lines that the US team wants to cross in the Bilateral Trade Agreement negotiations. There could be a groundswell of opinion in favour of Modi, if India decides to put out in the public domain all those unreasonable US demands that threaten the country’s food security and sovereignty. Trump has made it more and more difficult for the US to get a favourable deal with India as his insults cross the threshold of diplomatic tolerance.


In fact, Trump has offered a reality check to Modi about the possibilities in India-US relations ––– present and future. The widely held perception in India was that a Democrat President was detrimental to bilateral relations with even some BJP insiders speculating an attempt at a regime change operation in India. Hence, Trump’s win was seen as Modi’s position getting bolstered with many believing in some sort of a personal rapport between the two leaders. That belief is in tatters.


Trump has done a great favour to Modi and India at large by revealing US’s bipartisan support for Pakistan –– being the guardians and guarantors of its nuclear arsenal. The alacrity with which Trump jumped in to save Pakistan when its nuclear storage facility was targeted must have sent a message to China as well. After all, the target of a weapon is determined by the one who really owns it.


And it is to Modi’s credit that his perceived friendship with Trump did not deter him from drawing red lines to protect India’s food security and trade concerns. Despite Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi using every bit of Trumpian abuses to target Modi, the latter has not flinched yet. The difference between 1995 and 2025 is that India’s market is no longer up for grabs.


The world becomes multipolar only when the oppressed people desire so. This is one such moment. It is India’s destiny to strengthen genuine multilateralism where in the name of trade self-respecting nations are not expected to surrender their sovereignty and pay tributes to a bully.


While India joined WTO under Prime Minister Narasimha Rao the very first day itself on January 1, 1995, China took nearly seven years to study and prepare and only then did they step in on December 11, 2001. And now China rules the manufacturing world, while India is struggling to set up assembly lines for foreign industrialists.