Addressing Tejashwi Than Trump

 The Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms are being framed as a smart response to the impact of Trump tariffs or rather American sanctions against India. The new reduced rates aim to put more buck in the consumer’s hands, who is expected to buy more and create more demand in the economy. But is that all? Domestic economic decisions are mostly triggered by local political exigencies. There is one around corner –– Bihar elections.

The Bihar elections are expected to be held in November 2025. And it has already generated considerable heat. Giving the example of one assembly constituency of Mahadevapura in Bengaluru, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi accused the NDA government of having stolen all the elections to the state assemblies and Parliament.

The accusation defies logic at many levels starting from the Karnataka assembly polls of 2023: Congress won 135 seats, which were more than double that of the BJP’s seat count of 66. Later in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, Rahul won the Rae Bareli seat polling 6,87,649 votes with a margin of 3.9 lakh votes, which was better than his mother’s performance in the 2019 elections.

In fact, Rahul Gandhi’s victory margin was more than double that of the Prime Minister’s. While Rahul polled 6.8 lakh votes, Modi garnered only 6.12 lakh votes in Varanasi and won by a much lesser margin of 1.52 lakh votes. So, if a party is stealing all the elections, won’t it secure its leader’s seat with the best of margins? Conversely, won’t it steal Rahul’s Rae Bareli seat as well? After all, Rahul knew that he was losing his Amethi seat in the previous election and had hence travelled southwards to choose a safe seat with a majority of Muslim and Christian voters.

While these questions defy the logic of the “Vote Chori” campaign, it needs to be said that the campaign has indeed struck a note with at least those inimical to the BJP, if not the larger public. Rahul’s “Vote Chori” press conference was indeed convincing and compelling. Politis is not merely statistics. So, the accusation stuck, however absurd it might sound to extrapolate an assembly constituency to the entire country with thousands of such constituencies and many of those won by the Congress.

The “Vote Chori” accusations and the subsequent “Vote Adhikar Yatra” campaign were launched amidst the Special and Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar. The SIR and the Vote Chori accusations have got linked and mixed up to become a potent campaign in favour of the Opposition. And the elections are just two months away.

The GST reforms should be seen in this context.

The Indian middle class is an anomaly because those who earn Rs 6 lakh per annum and those who take home Rs 60 lakh a year would happily call themselves middle class. Having climbed the steep ladder of relative success and prosperity in one generation, this class is cost conscious. Price reduction is something that matters to them. But this class cannot offset the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. They will not buy the export-priced apparel or footwear or gem and jewellery. Why, they won’t even consider cooking the export-quality shrimp.

Their consumption pattern is not going to change, but they might consider voting for Modi and Nitish Kumar again for reducing the price of everything from toothpaste to motor bikes to mid-sized cars. This is more a winning political formula than a geoeconomic measure against a global bully. The middle classes are India’s whining multitude, they make opinion. Modi has offered them the ultimate sop –– telling them that more and more consumables are within their reach. This could change the topic of conversation in the run up to the polls.

But for brief interludes, the NDA has been continuously in power in Bihar since 2005. That is a long stint by any measure in an almost ungovernable state with the greatest levels of poverty. Thanks to the complete polarisation of the polity, caste and communal considerations often override biting anti-incumbency. Yet, the NDA fared badly in Bihar in 2024 Lok Sabha polls with just 30 out of 40 seats whereas it had won 39 in 2019, 31 in 2014 and 32 in 2009.

The Opposition to SIR was expected to exacerbate the communal divide as the attempt was to identify non-citizens, a euphemism for illegal Muslim migrants from Bangladesh. The more the Opposition from the Congress and the Lalu clan to SIR, the worse the Hindu-Muslim divide would get –– could have been the calculation. However, when the “Vote Chori” campaign gets mixed up with the SIR, the end result would be something else making even the fence-sitters wonder about the truth behind the allegations.

When a bonanza is announced at that very moment, the political climate gets altered, introducing a political or electoral equivalent of a feel-good factor. Bihar is the land of the desperately poor, the poor and the lower middle classes, where every paisa counts. If the Income Tax slab revision just four days before the polling could fetch bountiful votes for the BJP in the 2025 Delhi elections, the GST rejig offering massive price reduction to the working classes could be a welcome relief.

And it is important to look back at Modi’s Independence Day speech. There were two very important messages: lowering of GST rates and unqualified praise for the RSS. Many Sangh insiders believe that apart from price rise, the lack of enthusiasm of the RSS could have played a big role in the BJP losing the simple majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The I-Day speech addressed both these issues. Modi is going out of his way to accommodate the RSS, without which the BJP becomes a cadre-less party like the Congress; and also, to arrest price rise.

Here is a consummate politician recalibrating his policies to suit the demands of the electorate, which was getting increasingly apathetic towards the government. The Bihar results may prove him right.

Tariff As Regime-Change Tool

Extra 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods –– “sanctions” is the correct expression used by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt –– for buying Russian oil is the latest proof of the continuing bipartisan US efforts to enforce a regime change in India. Prime Minister Modi should go. Period. Otherwise, there is no need for all this fake outrage when it was the Biden administration that had “asked” India to buy Russian oil, when China remains the largest oil importer and the European Union the biggest Russian gas buyer. India is “perplexed”, as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar put it, because other than a regime-change attempt there is no plausible reason for these “sanctions”.

Now is the time to look back at Pahalgam. Hindsight always offers a 20/20 vision. Did Pakistan’s tinpot army chief Asim Munir believe that he had US on his side when he sent terrorists across the LoC to carry out the worst communal attack on innocent tourists in recent times? Did Munir wargame a situation wherein, after Balakot, India was sure to have responded kinetically to a terrorist attack? Did he expect the US to jump in to protect Pakistan? The US did rush in to safeguard the nuclear arsenal and to seek a ceasefire. Then President Trump invited Munir for lunch, and again for CENTCOM chief Michael Kurrilla’s farewell.

All Indian domestic pressure points were being jabbed mercilessly: a Pakistani terror attack; retaliation being countered by US diplomacy; Americans hyphenating India and Pakistan; summoning Modi to the White House to have lunch with Munir; and letting Munir threaten India with a nuclear attack on American soil. Meanwhile, the Opposition, as if picking up the cue, began the chorus of “Narendar Surrender”. Tariff was the only quasi-legitimate weapon left for the US to unleash on Modi. Now, that is also done.

The Russian oil bogey is a diversionary tactic, and the so-called attack on Mukesh Ambani is laughable because he had a meeting with Trump at Doha in May, which was his second since January. The US would have beef about Russian-owned refiner Nayara Energy making a decent profit refining Russian crude, if at all. But the refining margins are legal and the very idea of de-legitimising these profits is an attempt to criminalise the Indian government in a grand attempt at regime change.

If India acquiesces, the Narendar-Surrender slogan will be raised and if India upholds its sovereignty, the government would be attacked for war profiteering –– a dirty accusation to be made against any government.

Indian policy makers ought to have taken a close look at a picture from the Oval Office where all the European heads of government were sitting studiously across the President’s table. They represent countries that were captured/liberated by the Allied forces at the end of World War II. UK PM Keir Starmer’s absence was significant. After all, the UK, unlike France, was not under Nazi occupation. It is the 1945 world order established by the Western winners of WWII that is at stake. India achieved its freedom fighting one of the biggest winners of WWII and obviously doesn’t belong to this group.

India’s success and its continuing growth story should be read against this backdrop. That Indian soldiers and resources helped UK retain its sovereignty and the fact that their sacrifices helped Allied forces in their crucial turnarounds like the Battle of Kohima are forgotten. In fact, they are remembered only while wargaming secessionist and separatist scenarios in India where the grandchildren of the “loyal collaborators” are expected to secede to become mercenaries all over again.

After all, America was built with British colonial loot. Where did the investible surplus that created the rail roads, canals, textile mills, steel factories and mining industry come from? Would America have industrialised so fast and so well without British capital? Utsa Patnaik, the Indian economist, had assessed the colonial plunder and arrived at the figure of $45 trillion –– some of it, obviously, would have got invested in creating the American miracle. Grownups know that there are no real miracles or magic, but only a sleight of hand. Without colonial or neocolonial pillage there is no Western magic.

So, the attack on Indian sovereignty is nobody’s eccentricity. It is rather a necessity for the West to have a pliant Indian leadership, which they were used to since the late 1980s. A single party rule with a strong leader in India thus becomes anathema to the West. It is interesting to note that the same geopolitical forces that were mobilised against Indira Gandhi are now trying to corner Modi. Of course, with the big difference of a reduced Russia and a rising China, which when combined would give the world a countervailing force against Western dominance. The Rupee-Rouble era is being revisited when Russia and India agree to increase bilateral trade in their sovereign currencies.

All that Modi lacks are the camaraderie of SA Dange and Mohit Sen and an alliance with the CPI. Jokes apart, the most astonishing diplomatic feat achieved by Modi is the recalibration, or rather total reversal, of India’s relationship with China in the face of domestic political heat. India’s animosity towards China was a Western construct that had to be demolished at some point in time. And Modi grabbed the opportunity delivered by the hostile West to swing towards China, proving true the old claim of India being a swing state.

The new dawn in Asia has been hastened by Western avarice. A Russia-India-China axis could stabilise global political and economic turbulence and create a more just world order. The Tianjin SCO summit, just a few days away, holds much in store for India, which needs predictable borders on the north and east, and trade routes to east. The Chennai-Vladivostok Sea link revives memories of the Soviet nuclear-armed flotilla ensuring Indian victory in the Bangladesh liberation war. Now, the Eastern Maritime Corridor should have an important Chinese port en route. China is an iron neighbour, which can and should become a friend.

Dhankar, RSS and Retirement

The resignation of Vice President Jagdeep Dhankar, the country’s second highest Constitutional functionary, hardly seemed to have created a crisis or even a political controversy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi set out on his foreign jaunts as if nothing significant had happened and the signing of the trade deal with the UK on Thursday soon pushed Dhankar out of the top news headlines.

There is doubt about Dhankar really suffering from a debilitating disease that deters him from chairing the Rajya Sabha or holding his office. Political pundits have latched on to the theory of Dhankar defying the BJP leadership in accepting a notice of impeachment of Justice Yashwant Varma by the Opposition as the reason for the government losing its faith in him. This, sure, is better than the official ill-health theory but still falls far short in the realm of possibilities.

A strong government that can without demur ease out a Constitutional functionary can also politely ask him or her to toe the line. There is no need for a person holding a high office to resign, that too during the Parliament session, if it were merely a case of difference of opinion about accepting a notice ahead of the Lok Sabha proceedings. Dhankar’s resignation smacks of a much bigger political plot. In fact, this is one of the bigger crises that Modi has tackled in his 11 years as Prime Minister.

Yet, the resignation has not rocked the boat as most resignations even from far more insignificant roles are wont to in this era of social media omnipresence. Four days have passed after Dhankar’s resignation; but he has not made a statement or anonymously leaked out a story in the press on what exactly transpired between him and the government.

Such unprecedent control over political messaging even during a high-profile political exit is rare and has been the hallmark of Modi’s tenure. But it has triggered an intense debate on a vital issue: the Modi-RSS relationship. Dhankar and Modi are 74 and the latter will be 75 --- the unofficial retirement age --- in a month and a half.

Dhankar’s resignation has made the Delhi commentariat wonder whether it has anything to do with RSS Sarsanghachalak Mohan Bhagwat earlier this month reminding the Sangh Parivar organisations, which include the BJP, that leaders ideally ought to retire at 75. Soon a former RSS spokesperson wrote an op-ed clarifying that it was not meant for the PM’s consumption and was a piece of general advice to the society at large.

However, Bhagwat has not made any such clarification yet. He may even shock the organisation and step down as he turns 75, six days before Modi does so. Sure, it is too close to the event and there are no signs yet of a successor getting groomed. So, all this could be mere pressure tactics as well. But Bhagwat’s recalling of Moropant Pingle’s advice on an age limit for public servants has suddenly opened up the fault lines that existed between the PM and the mother ship.

Unlike Vajpayee, who visited the RSS headquarters in 2000 within three years of becoming Prime Minister –– even while steering a tough coalition of constantly bickering allies –– Modi waited 11 years for this crucial visit. Modi was the first RSS Swayamsevak to lead the BJP to a simple majority in Parliament and head a government without the crutches of the alliance partners.

Yet, it was only after he fell short of simple majority in the 2024 polls and was forced to depend on the allies to form a government that he decided to visit the RSS headquarters in March 2025. Earlier during the inauguration of the Ram temple, Bhagwat was made a mere spectator while Modi presided over the priestly proceedings. The not-so-warm vibes between these two icons of the Sangh Parivar were on public display at Ayodhya in January 2024 and at Nagpur in March 2025.

Still, no Parivar insider envisages a change of guard at the Raisina Hill before 2029, if at all. The RSS appreciates all that the BJP has done for the organisation and understands the pitfalls of pushing its own government out of power as it happened in 2004. Dattopant Thengadi, the most credible RSS leader, probably more popular than the then RSS chief KS Sudarshan, had held a rally at Ram Lila Maidan and attacked the Vajpayee government viciously in 2001.

There will be no such public exhibition of sibling rivalry or maternal disappointment this time around. Yet, the fact that the BJP still has not chosen a new party president proves that there are points of friction between the two power centres in the Sangh Parivar that are not allowing a consensus candidate to emerge. Even Dhankar’s exit is being framed in an organisational paradigm –– an outsider who was showered with opportunities finally becoming a disappointment.

Like Dhankar, many of the new BJP’s top leaders have come from either Congress or other Opposition parties. This has irked the RSS to no end. And the loss of majority for the BJP in the 2024 elections has emboldened the RSS leadership to point out that the party is only a part of the Hindutva family. The results once again underscored the old organisational hierarchy and negated former party president JP Nadda’s claim that BJP is “capable” of running its affairs.

No wonder there was much speculation around Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s meeting with the Prime Minister last week. But all the talk about succession planning seems premature. Sure, there would be a shakeup with a new Vice President and party president offering signposts for the BJP’s future.

Till Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi keeps on pledging to purge the RSS, the PM has nothing to worry, because it becomes imperative for the RSS to support a strong leader who can keep its enemies at bay. But the moment the organisation finds a support base elsewhere the situation can get altered dramatically. Then, few contemporary Indian politicians are equipped to play such nuanced strokes of power politics like Modi.

 Modi@11: three big challenges

Complete dependence on US Big Tech; paucity of infrastructure for mobility; and lack of farm produce procurement in pockets of poverty are glaring gaps

         Source: wikimedia.org

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rise has been phenomenal to say the least. Equalling Jawaharlal Nehru’s record of three consecutive national election victories might sound like a statistical milestone, but it is much more than that. Nehru was riding the wave of the national movement that defeated colonialism, and each Congress candidate was more or less a genuine freedom fighter in an idealistic era with no need for fact-checkers. Whereas, Modi’s 2014 victory was a spectacular throwback to the single party rule, which was deemed impossible in an era of coalition governments.

So, any attempt to analyse his achievements and failures in the eleventh year of his prime ministership should also be made in accordance with the grand scale of his political presence across the country, notwithstanding the reduced mandate in the 2024 elections. His successes are many and are well-advertised. So, there is hardly any need to reiterate them. In fact, his greatest success is in keeping the Sangh Parivar in power these last 11 years --- a fact grudgingly acknowledged by the RSS leadership, which has been sulking for long.

However, Modi’s challenges are many, and if they do not get addressed urgently in his third term they may become grand failures:

Complete dependence on US Big Tech

The US has a monopoly control over technology and tech-business in India. The earnings from India of Google, Meta, Microsoft, X, Apple, Amazon and others are not even spoken about in trade tariff negotiations because without these companies and the products they offer, India will come to a standstill. India does not have a single homegrown tech startup that can even attempt to conceive a mobile or desktop operating system. This article cannot be written without MS Word and iOS or published without Google.
 
While in India, an email, a message, a video or an image cannot be sent or received without a Big Tech platform or server, the Chinese have HarmonyOS for mobile applications and have unveiled OpenKylin for desktops. Indians can only drool over the latest Huawei laptops. No Indian can consume and produce entertainment, news or mundane “paper” work for regular home or office use without the US Big Tech hardware, software, servers and platforms. In fact, Google controls the entire Indian digital ad-tech sector worth billions of dollars.
 
So long as this monopoly situation remains, the US administration will continue to fete Pakistani dictators and hyphenate India and Pakistan, humiliating India to no end.
 
Infrastructure for mobility

In the infrastructure sector, the achievements of this government are not mean by any measure. As a railway beat reporter 22-23 years ago, I had reported on the design challenges of the Chenab bridge, which became a reality last week. Yes, it took about 28 years to build this railway line from Jammu to Srinagar. Former Integral Coach Factory General Manager Sudhanshu Mani’s Train 18, which became Vande Bharat is also a feather in Modi’s cap. Something that should have happened at ICF long, long ago.
 
But this is not enough. On February 15, there was a stampede in the New Delhi railway station that killed 18 valid passengers because the railways could not handle the passenger rush either in terms of restricting train tickets or managing space on the railway station platform. It is a great shame that a department which could design the Chenab bridge did not display basic passenger management abilities when they were required the most. If immediate punitive measures are not taken against local officials their apathy towards poor passengers will continue.
 
The eastbound trains from Delhi serve the poorest of poor from Delhi’s slums, who are the backbone of Delhi’s economy. Their bare subsistence-level wages run Delhi-NCR’s factories, offices and homes and it is impossible to imagine life without them. It doesn’t need a design marvel to double the capacity in this trunk route --- simply build tracks overhead and manufacture fully airconditioned coaches.
 
Worse is the case of Mumbai suburban trains, which carry over 70 lakh passengers every day. A few days ago, four passengers died when 12 of them hanging on the footboard fell off. Apparently 7 of them die every day with one of them falling from a moving train. This almost reads like an 18^th century horror story factoid. Total number of deaths on western and central suburban rail networks in the last 20 years is unbelievable --- 51,802. All the suburban trains need to be turned into fully airconditioned coaches within a year.
 
In 11 years, 55,000 kms of new roads have been built, but their quality needs to be audited badly. Landslides during monsoons, literally from the Himalayas to the Arabian Sea, have turned the national highways into a joke. And all this points towards corruption and nothing else. Unless strict action is taken against local officers and the contractors there can never be accountability for the huge amounts of money spent by commuters by way of toll tax.
 
Procurement of farm produce

Odisha’s starvation hubs of Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput did not become capable of offering food to its children (instead of selling them for a morsel of rice) because of foreign charity, missionaries or NGOs. The miraculous turnaround happened with government procurement of agriculture produce. That is all that is required of the government to make people stand on their feet and do farming. Odisha, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are great examples of what government procurement can do to lift people with farmlands up from abject poverty. This must be replicated in Bihar and eastern Uttar Pradesh. Farming should be made remunerative to sustain lives in the villages. The mass migration of the poor from Bihar and UP to Delhi and Mumbai has made the cities burst at the seams. Indian cities do not have the capacity, particularly Mumbai, to build more slums. Life in city slums is nothing that a government should be offering its citizens. 
 
And, of course, Modi’s biggest challenge of job creation will also be addressed while investing in agriculture, which employs the greatest proportion of the workforce in the country.