Addressing Tejashwi Than Trump

 The Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms are being framed as a smart response to the impact of Trump tariffs or rather American sanctions against India. The new reduced rates aim to put more buck in the consumer’s hands, who is expected to buy more and create more demand in the economy. But is that all? Domestic economic decisions are mostly triggered by local political exigencies. There is one around corner –– Bihar elections.

The Bihar elections are expected to be held in November 2025. And it has already generated considerable heat. Giving the example of one assembly constituency of Mahadevapura in Bengaluru, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi accused the NDA government of having stolen all the elections to the state assemblies and Parliament.

The accusation defies logic at many levels starting from the Karnataka assembly polls of 2023: Congress won 135 seats, which were more than double that of the BJP’s seat count of 66. Later in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, Rahul won the Rae Bareli seat polling 6,87,649 votes with a margin of 3.9 lakh votes, which was better than his mother’s performance in the 2019 elections.

In fact, Rahul Gandhi’s victory margin was more than double that of the Prime Minister’s. While Rahul polled 6.8 lakh votes, Modi garnered only 6.12 lakh votes in Varanasi and won by a much lesser margin of 1.52 lakh votes. So, if a party is stealing all the elections, won’t it secure its leader’s seat with the best of margins? Conversely, won’t it steal Rahul’s Rae Bareli seat as well? After all, Rahul knew that he was losing his Amethi seat in the previous election and had hence travelled southwards to choose a safe seat with a majority of Muslim and Christian voters.

While these questions defy the logic of the “Vote Chori” campaign, it needs to be said that the campaign has indeed struck a note with at least those inimical to the BJP, if not the larger public. Rahul’s “Vote Chori” press conference was indeed convincing and compelling. Politis is not merely statistics. So, the accusation stuck, however absurd it might sound to extrapolate an assembly constituency to the entire country with thousands of such constituencies and many of those won by the Congress.

The “Vote Chori” accusations and the subsequent “Vote Adhikar Yatra” campaign were launched amidst the Special and Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar. The SIR and the Vote Chori accusations have got linked and mixed up to become a potent campaign in favour of the Opposition. And the elections are just two months away.

The GST reforms should be seen in this context.

The Indian middle class is an anomaly because those who earn Rs 6 lakh per annum and those who take home Rs 60 lakh a year would happily call themselves middle class. Having climbed the steep ladder of relative success and prosperity in one generation, this class is cost conscious. Price reduction is something that matters to them. But this class cannot offset the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. They will not buy the export-priced apparel or footwear or gem and jewellery. Why, they won’t even consider cooking the export-quality shrimp.

Their consumption pattern is not going to change, but they might consider voting for Modi and Nitish Kumar again for reducing the price of everything from toothpaste to motor bikes to mid-sized cars. This is more a winning political formula than a geoeconomic measure against a global bully. The middle classes are India’s whining multitude, they make opinion. Modi has offered them the ultimate sop –– telling them that more and more consumables are within their reach. This could change the topic of conversation in the run up to the polls.

But for brief interludes, the NDA has been continuously in power in Bihar since 2005. That is a long stint by any measure in an almost ungovernable state with the greatest levels of poverty. Thanks to the complete polarisation of the polity, caste and communal considerations often override biting anti-incumbency. Yet, the NDA fared badly in Bihar in 2024 Lok Sabha polls with just 30 out of 40 seats whereas it had won 39 in 2019, 31 in 2014 and 32 in 2009.

The Opposition to SIR was expected to exacerbate the communal divide as the attempt was to identify non-citizens, a euphemism for illegal Muslim migrants from Bangladesh. The more the Opposition from the Congress and the Lalu clan to SIR, the worse the Hindu-Muslim divide would get –– could have been the calculation. However, when the “Vote Chori” campaign gets mixed up with the SIR, the end result would be something else making even the fence-sitters wonder about the truth behind the allegations.

When a bonanza is announced at that very moment, the political climate gets altered, introducing a political or electoral equivalent of a feel-good factor. Bihar is the land of the desperately poor, the poor and the lower middle classes, where every paisa counts. If the Income Tax slab revision just four days before the polling could fetch bountiful votes for the BJP in the 2025 Delhi elections, the GST rejig offering massive price reduction to the working classes could be a welcome relief.

And it is important to look back at Modi’s Independence Day speech. There were two very important messages: lowering of GST rates and unqualified praise for the RSS. Many Sangh insiders believe that apart from price rise, the lack of enthusiasm of the RSS could have played a big role in the BJP losing the simple majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The I-Day speech addressed both these issues. Modi is going out of his way to accommodate the RSS, without which the BJP becomes a cadre-less party like the Congress; and also, to arrest price rise.

Here is a consummate politician recalibrating his policies to suit the demands of the electorate, which was getting increasingly apathetic towards the government. The Bihar results may prove him right.