Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts

Friday, September 5, 2025

Addressing Tejashwi Than Trump

 The Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms are being framed as a smart response to the impact of Trump tariffs or rather American sanctions against India. The new reduced rates aim to put more buck in the consumer’s hands, who is expected to buy more and create more demand in the economy. But is that all? Domestic economic decisions are mostly triggered by local political exigencies. There is one around corner –– Bihar elections.

The Bihar elections are expected to be held in November 2025. And it has already generated considerable heat. Giving the example of one assembly constituency of Mahadevapura in Bengaluru, Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi accused the NDA government of having stolen all the elections to the state assemblies and Parliament.

The accusation defies logic at many levels starting from the Karnataka assembly polls of 2023: Congress won 135 seats, which were more than double that of the BJP’s seat count of 66. Later in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, Rahul won the Rae Bareli seat polling 6,87,649 votes with a margin of 3.9 lakh votes, which was better than his mother’s performance in the 2019 elections.

In fact, Rahul Gandhi’s victory margin was more than double that of the Prime Minister’s. While Rahul polled 6.8 lakh votes, Modi garnered only 6.12 lakh votes in Varanasi and won by a much lesser margin of 1.52 lakh votes. So, if a party is stealing all the elections, won’t it secure its leader’s seat with the best of margins? Conversely, won’t it steal Rahul’s Rae Bareli seat as well? After all, Rahul knew that he was losing his Amethi seat in the previous election and had hence travelled southwards to choose a safe seat with a majority of Muslim and Christian voters.

While these questions defy the logic of the “Vote Chori” campaign, it needs to be said that the campaign has indeed struck a note with at least those inimical to the BJP, if not the larger public. Rahul’s “Vote Chori” press conference was indeed convincing and compelling. Politis is not merely statistics. So, the accusation stuck, however absurd it might sound to extrapolate an assembly constituency to the entire country with thousands of such constituencies and many of those won by the Congress.

The “Vote Chori” accusations and the subsequent “Vote Adhikar Yatra” campaign were launched amidst the Special and Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Bihar. The SIR and the Vote Chori accusations have got linked and mixed up to become a potent campaign in favour of the Opposition. And the elections are just two months away.

The GST reforms should be seen in this context.

The Indian middle class is an anomaly because those who earn Rs 6 lakh per annum and those who take home Rs 60 lakh a year would happily call themselves middle class. Having climbed the steep ladder of relative success and prosperity in one generation, this class is cost conscious. Price reduction is something that matters to them. But this class cannot offset the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs. They will not buy the export-priced apparel or footwear or gem and jewellery. Why, they won’t even consider cooking the export-quality shrimp.

Their consumption pattern is not going to change, but they might consider voting for Modi and Nitish Kumar again for reducing the price of everything from toothpaste to motor bikes to mid-sized cars. This is more a winning political formula than a geoeconomic measure against a global bully. The middle classes are India’s whining multitude, they make opinion. Modi has offered them the ultimate sop –– telling them that more and more consumables are within their reach. This could change the topic of conversation in the run up to the polls.

But for brief interludes, the NDA has been continuously in power in Bihar since 2005. That is a long stint by any measure in an almost ungovernable state with the greatest levels of poverty. Thanks to the complete polarisation of the polity, caste and communal considerations often override biting anti-incumbency. Yet, the NDA fared badly in Bihar in 2024 Lok Sabha polls with just 30 out of 40 seats whereas it had won 39 in 2019, 31 in 2014 and 32 in 2009.

The Opposition to SIR was expected to exacerbate the communal divide as the attempt was to identify non-citizens, a euphemism for illegal Muslim migrants from Bangladesh. The more the Opposition from the Congress and the Lalu clan to SIR, the worse the Hindu-Muslim divide would get –– could have been the calculation. However, when the “Vote Chori” campaign gets mixed up with the SIR, the end result would be something else making even the fence-sitters wonder about the truth behind the allegations.

When a bonanza is announced at that very moment, the political climate gets altered, introducing a political or electoral equivalent of a feel-good factor. Bihar is the land of the desperately poor, the poor and the lower middle classes, where every paisa counts. If the Income Tax slab revision just four days before the polling could fetch bountiful votes for the BJP in the 2025 Delhi elections, the GST rejig offering massive price reduction to the working classes could be a welcome relief.

And it is important to look back at Modi’s Independence Day speech. There were two very important messages: lowering of GST rates and unqualified praise for the RSS. Many Sangh insiders believe that apart from price rise, the lack of enthusiasm of the RSS could have played a big role in the BJP losing the simple majority in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The I-Day speech addressed both these issues. Modi is going out of his way to accommodate the RSS, without which the BJP becomes a cadre-less party like the Congress; and also, to arrest price rise.

Here is a consummate politician recalibrating his policies to suit the demands of the electorate, which was getting increasingly apathetic towards the government. The Bihar results may prove him right.

Friday, August 22, 2025

Tariff As Regime-Change Tool

Extra 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods –– “sanctions” is the correct expression used by White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt –– for buying Russian oil is the latest proof of the continuing bipartisan US efforts to enforce a regime change in India. Prime Minister Modi should go. Period. Otherwise, there is no need for all this fake outrage when it was the Biden administration that had “asked” India to buy Russian oil, when China remains the largest oil importer and the European Union the biggest Russian gas buyer. India is “perplexed”, as External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar put it, because other than a regime-change attempt there is no plausible reason for these “sanctions”.

Now is the time to look back at Pahalgam. Hindsight always offers a 20/20 vision. Did Pakistan’s tinpot army chief Asim Munir believe that he had US on his side when he sent terrorists across the LoC to carry out the worst communal attack on innocent tourists in recent times? Did Munir wargame a situation wherein, after Balakot, India was sure to have responded kinetically to a terrorist attack? Did he expect the US to jump in to protect Pakistan? The US did rush in to safeguard the nuclear arsenal and to seek a ceasefire. Then President Trump invited Munir for lunch, and again for CENTCOM chief Michael Kurrilla’s farewell.

All Indian domestic pressure points were being jabbed mercilessly: a Pakistani terror attack; retaliation being countered by US diplomacy; Americans hyphenating India and Pakistan; summoning Modi to the White House to have lunch with Munir; and letting Munir threaten India with a nuclear attack on American soil. Meanwhile, the Opposition, as if picking up the cue, began the chorus of “Narendar Surrender”. Tariff was the only quasi-legitimate weapon left for the US to unleash on Modi. Now, that is also done.

The Russian oil bogey is a diversionary tactic, and the so-called attack on Mukesh Ambani is laughable because he had a meeting with Trump at Doha in May, which was his second since January. The US would have beef about Russian-owned refiner Nayara Energy making a decent profit refining Russian crude, if at all. But the refining margins are legal and the very idea of de-legitimising these profits is an attempt to criminalise the Indian government in a grand attempt at regime change.

If India acquiesces, the Narendar-Surrender slogan will be raised and if India upholds its sovereignty, the government would be attacked for war profiteering –– a dirty accusation to be made against any government.

Indian policy makers ought to have taken a close look at a picture from the Oval Office where all the European heads of government were sitting studiously across the President’s table. They represent countries that were captured/liberated by the Allied forces at the end of World War II. UK PM Keir Starmer’s absence was significant. After all, the UK, unlike France, was not under Nazi occupation. It is the 1945 world order established by the Western winners of WWII that is at stake. India achieved its freedom fighting one of the biggest winners of WWII and obviously doesn’t belong to this group.

India’s success and its continuing growth story should be read against this backdrop. That Indian soldiers and resources helped UK retain its sovereignty and the fact that their sacrifices helped Allied forces in their crucial turnarounds like the Battle of Kohima are forgotten. In fact, they are remembered only while wargaming secessionist and separatist scenarios in India where the grandchildren of the “loyal collaborators” are expected to secede to become mercenaries all over again.

After all, America was built with British colonial loot. Where did the investible surplus that created the rail roads, canals, textile mills, steel factories and mining industry come from? Would America have industrialised so fast and so well without British capital? Utsa Patnaik, the Indian economist, had assessed the colonial plunder and arrived at the figure of $45 trillion –– some of it, obviously, would have got invested in creating the American miracle. Grownups know that there are no real miracles or magic, but only a sleight of hand. Without colonial or neocolonial pillage there is no Western magic.

So, the attack on Indian sovereignty is nobody’s eccentricity. It is rather a necessity for the West to have a pliant Indian leadership, which they were used to since the late 1980s. A single party rule with a strong leader in India thus becomes anathema to the West. It is interesting to note that the same geopolitical forces that were mobilised against Indira Gandhi are now trying to corner Modi. Of course, with the big difference of a reduced Russia and a rising China, which when combined would give the world a countervailing force against Western dominance. The Rupee-Rouble era is being revisited when Russia and India agree to increase bilateral trade in their sovereign currencies.

All that Modi lacks are the camaraderie of SA Dange and Mohit Sen and an alliance with the CPI. Jokes apart, the most astonishing diplomatic feat achieved by Modi is the recalibration, or rather total reversal, of India’s relationship with China in the face of domestic political heat. India’s animosity towards China was a Western construct that had to be demolished at some point in time. And Modi grabbed the opportunity delivered by the hostile West to swing towards China, proving true the old claim of India being a swing state.

The new dawn in Asia has been hastened by Western avarice. A Russia-India-China axis could stabilise global political and economic turbulence and create a more just world order. The Tianjin SCO summit, just a few days away, holds much in store for India, which needs predictable borders on the north and east, and trade routes to east. The Chennai-Vladivostok Sea link revives memories of the Soviet nuclear-armed flotilla ensuring Indian victory in the Bangladesh liberation war. Now, the Eastern Maritime Corridor should have an important Chinese port en route. China is an iron neighbour, which can and should become a friend.

Monday, August 4, 2025

Trump's Tantrums Are A Sideshow

India’s entry into the World Trade Organisation ––– rather Indian politicians rushing into a global trade minefield where the Chinese were wary to tread ––– left the country’s manufacturing sector bankrupt. Now, Indians can’t hook up to a Wi-Fi connection without a Chinese dongle. It was impossible to replace a faulty telecom equipment during the Ladakh standoff, when restrictions were imposed on Chinese imports. India’s dependence on Chinese Active Pharma Ingredients to produce antibiotics is near total ––– 80 to 90 per cent.


While India joined WTO under Prime Minister Narasimha Rao the very first day itself on January 1, 1995, China took nearly seven years to study and prepare and only then did they step in on December 11, 2001. And now China rules the manufacturing world, while India is struggling to set up assembly lines for foreign industrialists.


India is where it is solely because of the Western assets in Indian politics, bureaucracy and media. Anyone who had then questioned India’s entry into the WTO used to get damned and named a dinosaur, who wanted to reinvent the wheel. The West wanted China to be the world’s factory and India a poor, underdeveloped market. But then, the assumption that the Chinese would be perpetually and mindlessly running factories for Western profiteers was proved wrong.


When China became a threat and a competitor, the West dumped the “rules-based international order” and “multilateralism” and has begun sealing bilateral trade agreements. Now, the West wants to reinvent the wheel, everywhere, particularly back home.


 

Trump’s insults, accusations and rants should only be seen in the light of a post-WTO continuum. His personal style and slights have little to do with all the bilateral treaties that are getting finalised all over the world. The UK, the UAE, Australia and European Free Trade Association have signed trade treaties with India. Trump’s tantrums are just a side show.

But what is at stake is India’s sovereignty, food security, rural employment, farming income and the steep climb from starvation-level poverty. Kalahandi, Bolangir and Koraput are three districts of Odisha known not-so-long ago for starvation deaths and sale of infants for a bowl of rice. Naveen Patnaik’s miracle in Odisha was to make people grow food grains that the state government would buy. This assured payment made these districts along with the rest of the state surplus in rice.


It is that surplus, which Trump has set his eyes on. India’s green and white revolutions that turned a post-colonial misery into a food-surplus, self-respecting nation are sought to be dismantled. India is being asked to turn the clock back and allow US imports in agricultural and dairy sectors. If while pushing the country into WTO, Indian policy and opinion-makers had brought in manufacturing servitude, the new Bilateral Trade Agreement seems to have all the ingredients to throw the nation into food-dependency.
Cheap electronic, telecom and digital device imports made India into a country that only produces cyber coolies and coding cooks without a single breakthrough innovation in hardware or software. Neither a Blackberry, nor a Nokia, nor a Harmony OS!


Worse than Trump’s cheap digs at India having to buy oil from Pakistan was the news of Microsoft switching off its services to Indian oil refiner Nayara Energy, which is partly owned (49.13 per cent) by Russian oil major Rosneft. The West is trying to deny India its sovereignty not just through coercive trade practices but by weaponising technology paid for by Indian entities.


If Big Tech companies are operating according to the military objectives and foreign policy dictates of the West, should not their sales and revenues in India be reported by Indian authorities as import expenses? If so, do not their Indian revenues contribute towards balancing the so-called trade surplus that India has with the US?


India has been so mindful of the US interests that it still has not publicised all the red lines that the US team wants to cross in the Bilateral Trade Agreement negotiations. There could be a groundswell of opinion in favour of Modi, if India decides to put out in the public domain all those unreasonable US demands that threaten the country’s food security and sovereignty. Trump has made it more and more difficult for the US to get a favourable deal with India as his insults cross the threshold of diplomatic tolerance.


In fact, Trump has offered a reality check to Modi about the possibilities in India-US relations ––– present and future. The widely held perception in India was that a Democrat President was detrimental to bilateral relations with even some BJP insiders speculating an attempt at a regime change operation in India. Hence, Trump’s win was seen as Modi’s position getting bolstered with many believing in some sort of a personal rapport between the two leaders. That belief is in tatters.


Trump has done a great favour to Modi and India at large by revealing US’s bipartisan support for Pakistan –– being the guardians and guarantors of its nuclear arsenal. The alacrity with which Trump jumped in to save Pakistan when its nuclear storage facility was targeted must have sent a message to China as well. After all, the target of a weapon is determined by the one who really owns it.


And it is to Modi’s credit that his perceived friendship with Trump did not deter him from drawing red lines to protect India’s food security and trade concerns. Despite Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi using every bit of Trumpian abuses to target Modi, the latter has not flinched yet. The difference between 1995 and 2025 is that India’s market is no longer up for grabs.


The world becomes multipolar only when the oppressed people desire so. This is one such moment. It is India’s destiny to strengthen genuine multilateralism where in the name of trade self-respecting nations are not expected to surrender their sovereignty and pay tributes to a bully.


While India joined WTO under Prime Minister Narasimha Rao the very first day itself on January 1, 1995, China took nearly seven years to study and prepare and only then did they step in on December 11, 2001. And now China rules the manufacturing world, while India is struggling to set up assembly lines for foreign industrialists.